Where excess is building in the AI trade — valuation stretch, concentration, breadth and positioning — scored live from market data, not opinion.
A 0–100 read on how stretched the trade is — blending semiconductor price stretch, index concentration, breadth, positioning and recent momentum/drawdown (so it cools when tech actually rolls over). High means the crowd is leaning hard one way; low means washed out. (Fundamental valuation is tracked separately in the radar below.)
DRAM/HBM contract prices peak or spot inverts — memory-cycle top
Capex-to-revenue ratio widens
Hyperscaler capex cuts announced
AI revenue growth decelerates
Breadth narrows as the index makes highs
AI revenue growth re-accelerates
Leader PEGs stay below 1.0
Market breadth expands
Vendor financing stabilizes
Grid & power buildout timelines accelerate
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