M3I Research by Grish Ram

Understand the forces shaping the
next phase of the AI buildout.

Independent research on memory, custom silicon, networking, data-centre power and the macro risks affecting the sector.

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6 confirmed · 1 missed · 2 open — every call timestamped publicly.
Memory · Custom Silicon · Networking · Power · Macro Risk
Read the research on Substack →
What M3I Is Watching NowCurrent thesis
The current constraint

Memory is the binding constraint of the AI buildout

Why it matters
DRAM rose ~44% and NAND ~53% quarter-on-quarter, HBM-led; Samsung just printed a record ~$58B operating-profit quarter and Micron carries ~$100B in minimum revenue commitments. Whoever holds the constraint holds the pricing power.
Evidence being monitored
DRAM/HBM contract pricing, hyperscaler capex guides, memory-maker margin trajectory, Chinese memory capacity ramp.
What would invalidate it
Contract prices rolling over, a hyperscaler capex cut cycle, or Chinese supply scaling faster than AI demand absorbs it.
Related research
The Stillness That Compounds →
The models

The models are decision-support tools used to test and challenge the investment research. They are not standalone trading signals. Each gauge links to its methodology; timestamps show the last update.

Score of ScoresCurated
18
● Low
Bull 94%Base 5%Bear 1%
AI Bubble WatchLive
42
● Warm
Valuation
35
Concentration
30
Breadth
58
Positioning
62
Market TurbulenceLive
28
● Low
VIX
18.4
Credit (HYG)
+0.5%
Yield curve
+0.82
BTC 4-Year CycleLive
54
● Distribution
Cycle progress
54%
To next halving
~678d
BTC price
$63,861
Signals to watch★ AI Predictive Intelligence
Macro Interpretation
SignalGeopolitical risk is the dominant force compressing multiples; AI froth is cooling back toward trend with market stress building but still contained.
InterpretationThe Jun 17 MoU has broken down and open conflict has resumed — the war premium is back in oil, gold and safe-havens. The forward path runs through the Aug 16 redline: the model’s base case is a bounded grind ended by economic exhaustion (a frozen armistice), not a fast resolution.
OpportunityThe gap between priced and modeled outcomes is widest in the ~20% wider-war scenario. The segment least exposed to the conflict remains the AI/power buildout — domestic capex, power-constrained rather than oil-constrained.
Bear caseThe danger window runs to Aug 16: a high-casualty strike on US personnel, an attack on Gulf civilian infrastructure, or direct Israel–Iran escalation would tip the wider-war tail above 20% and force a broad risk-off repricing.
Implementation
Aug 16 redline tracker
The Jun 17 MoU broke down Jul 8 and strikes resumed. The clock that matters is the 60-day redline to Aug 16 — the implementation tail is unmet: Hormuz demining, frozen-asset release, HEU verification, sanctions-waiver cadence. Danger window and falsifiable markers tracked on the Geopolitical Risks page.
65
Cross-asset
Power is the bottleneck
Gas-turbine slots are sold through 2030; electrification names bid as AI data-center power demand inflects. The buildout's hard constraint.
68
Positioning
Crowded-trade unwind
Semis broke the 50-DMA on the June 5 flush — oversold but trend intact. Watch whether the dip gets bought or each bounce gets sold.
60
S&P 500
7,406+0.3%
Brent
$93.30−0.9%
VIX
18.56−13.7%
Gold
$4,343−0.5%
BTC
$63,861-2.7%
10Y
4.57%+11bp
The research pillars
The Constraint
Where AI infrastructure is hitting shortages, bottlenecks and pricing power — HBM and memory, networking, custom silicon, storage, cooling, power generation and grid equipment.
Read the constraint research →
The Regime
The macro and geopolitical environment the thesis lives in — rates, inflation, commodities, escalation risk, market turbulence and the capital-spending cycle.
See the live regime read →
The Scoreboard
Every forecast timestamped and reviewed publicly — confirmed, missed and open calls with original dates, evidence and current status. The misses stay on the record.
Audit the record →
Featured research
Memory · The Constraint
The Stillness That Compounds
A public review of the April memory thesis — and why stretched DRAM pricing marks a later phase of the memory cycle.
Jun 26, 2026 · 10 min
Macro · The Regime
When Everyone Owns the Same Thing
The VIX said calm while the turbulence model said 90 — what crowding measures caught weeks before the $1T AI selloff.
Jun 10, 2026 · 8 min
Custom Silicon · The Constraint
Inside Marvell's Quiet AI Infrastructure Takeover
How custom inference silicon becomes the second sourcing lane beyond Nvidia — and what formalized the thesis.
Jun 4, 2026 · 12 min
Read the researchSubstack
AI & Macro · Substack
Deep dives on the AI bubble, the macro regime, and the signals behind the scores
Long-form articles unpacking what the dashboard is flagging — the thesis, the data, and the trades. Free while we're in beta.
Read on Substack →
About
Independent research built by an investor and operator
Grish Ram is a private investor and operator focused on AI infrastructure, macroeconomic regimes and geopolitical risk. He created M3I Research to combine fundamental research with transparent quantitative models and publicly audited forecasts. More about the research process →

Understand the forces shaping the AI buildout.

Every article covers one thesis: the constraint, the evidence supporting it, and the evidence that would challenge it. Published when there is something worth saying — no filler.

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