Model Updated — Day 33

Macro Risk,
Quantified Daily

The M3I Scanner runs a 10-signal turbulence model, 6-model composite engine, and scenario probability framework. Updated daily. Built for investors who trade around macro risk — not around headlines.

55/100
War Resolution
58/100
Turbulence
62%
Combined Resolution
$66,200
BTC Price
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⚠
Flash Alert — Model Revision: Two Live Paths Activated
Trump war speech + Iran ceasefire request on same day. Model split into Path A (Ground Ops, 40%) and Path B (April 6 Window, 60%). Oil +13% to $109. VIX +9%. This is the highest-signal day since the conflict began.
Apr 2, 2026 · 11:07 AM ET
Brent$109.24+8.7%
S&P 5005,528-1.8%
VIX23.9+8.9%
Gold$4,760+2.0%
BTC$66,200-3.0%
10Y4.21%-6bp
Apr 2, 2026 11:07 AM ET
Core Model Scores
● Live
Macro Resolution Index
55 /100
▼ 10
Two paths live — resolution still possible but window narrowing.
Market Turbulence Index
58 /100
▲ 23
Elevated and rising. Oil +13%, VIX +9%. Highest since model inception.
Combined Resolution Probability
62 %
▼ 4
Weighted across both paths. Path B (60%) holds the original thesis.
Geopolitical Scanner
● Live Scenario Paths
Path A — Ground Operations Proceed
40%
Military escalation. Ground troops deploy, V-Shape recovery dead, prolonged conflict cycle.
Oil Forecast$115-130
Turbulence Target65-70/100
Recession Risk45-50%
BTC OutlookRisk-off
Path B — April 6 Window Holds
60%
Original thesis intact. Negotiated resolution within April 6-13 window. Higher-probability path.
Oil Forecast$85-95
Turbulence Target30-40/100
Resolution Prob~62%
V-Shape RecoveryPossible
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Score History — Last 33 Days
Resolution
Turbulence
Combined %
Prediction Track Record
✓
Called: Negotiated Deal by ~April 14
Assigned 42% probability before any back-channel contact confirmed publicly.
Day 11 — March 10, 2026
✓
Called: Resolution window April 6-13
Narrowed window to within one week of original call. Confirmed by diplomatic signals.
Day 32 — April 1, 2026
●
Active: Two-path model activated
Path A (40% ground ops) vs Path B (60% April 6 window). Monitoring for resolution.
Day 33 — April 2, 2026
✓
Called: Oil above $100 as Signal #1
Flagged oil $100 as Path A trigger. Brent hit $109 on April 2 — as modeled.
Day 30 — March 30, 2026
10-Signal Turbulence Model
● Portfolio Monitor Engine

Market Turbulence Composite

Weighted composite of 10 independent stress signals. Higher = more turbulence. 0 = dead calm, 100 = extreme fear.

55
Composite
0 Calm25 Low50 Moderate75 High100 Extreme
Individual Signal Readings
VIX Level (18%)
23.9
58
VIX Term Structure (17%)
VIX/VXMT 1.06
55
Credit HYG (16%)
-1.2%
48
VIX Trend 10d (12%)
+4.2 pts
65
TLT Flight-to-Safety (12%)
20d +3.1%
62
Yield Curve 10y-3m (10%)
+0.32%
45
Small/Large Cap (7%)
IWM/SPY -2.4%
62
Copper / Gold (5%)
COPX/GLD +2.4%
22
Oil Spike 10d (3%)
Brent +8.7%
62
SPX vs 50MA (ctx)
-3.1%
52
⚠ ELEVATED — Risk-off positioning recommended
Engine: Portfolio Monitor · Lynch Style
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Turbulence Composite — 33 Day History
Composite
VIX
Credit
Sector Macro Regime Map
● Rates Rising · VIX High · Oil Rising · Dollar Stable

Each sector is scored against the current macro regime (interest rates, VIX, dollar, oil). Tailwinds = macro conditions favour this sector. Headwinds = conditions work against it.

Technology
AI infrastructure, Cloud migration, Semis
▼ Headwind — rates rising + dollar strong
Energy
Oil supply/demand, LNG export, Transition
▲ Tailwind — oil rising
Financials
NIM expansion, Credit cycle, Cap markets
→ Mixed — rates tailwind, VIX headwind
Health Care
GLP-1 wave, Aging demographics, Drug reform
▲ Defensive — VIX tailwind
Consumer Disc.
Spending cycle, E-commerce, Brands
▼ Headwind — rates rising + oil rising
Consumer Staples
Inflation pass-through, Defensive demand
▲ Defensive — VIX tailwind
Industrials
Infrastructure (IRA/CHIPS), Defence budgets
→ Mixed — oil stable needed
Materials
Commodity supercycle, Battery, Construction
→ Mixed — oil tailwind, VIX headwind
Real Estate
Rate sensitivity, Data centre REITs
▼ Headwind — rates rising
Utilities
AI data centre demand, Rate sensitivity
▼ Headwind — rates rising
Comm. Services
Digital ads, Streaming, AI integration
▼ Headwind — rates rising, VIX high
Crypto / Digital
BTC halving cycle, ETF flows, Liquidity
→ Mixed — cycle bullish, VIX bearish
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Bitcoin Macro Overlay
● Halving Cycle + Macro Signals
BTC Price
$66,200
-3.0% today
Halving Cycle
49%
714 days since halving
Cycle Phase
MID BULL
Historical peak: day 477-548
Next Halving
~746d
Est. April 2028
ISM Proxy (Cu/Au)
+2.4%
Expansion — 3mo streak
M2 Proxy (Liquidity)
Neutral
Global M2 flat
ETF Flow Signal
Outflows
3-day net negative
RSI (14d)
36
Oversold territory
Verdict: CAUTION — Oversold but Macro Hostile
BTC has pulled back sharply to $66K — well below the mid-bull cycle average. The macro overlay is mixed: ISM manufacturing has expanded for 3 consecutive months (bullish for risk assets), but VIX is elevated and ETF outflows are accelerating. RSI at 36 signals oversold conditions. The ISM expansion is a key divergence — historically, BTC rallies when manufacturing leads. If Path B resolves (60%), macro clears and BTC bounces hard from this support. If Path A (40%), expect a retest of $60K-62K before the cycle resumes.
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6-Model Composite Scanner
● Hourly
Diplomatic Signals
62
Iran ceasefire request — rising
Military Posture
71
Ground ops scenario — elevated
Energy Markets
78
Brent $109 — Hormuz premium
Equity Volatility
55
VIX 23.9 — fear bid
Safe Haven Flow
54
Gold $4,760 — strong haven bid
Sentiment & Narrative
67
Dual narrative — escalation + diplomacy
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Fair Value Engine — 4-Method Composite
● v2 Patched · Cyclical-Aware · Outlier-Resistant

Four independent valuation methods dynamically weighted by stock class. Cyclical stocks (Semis, Energy, Autos) get tighter growth caps, normalized EPS, and heavier EV/EBITDA weighting. Outlier rejection excludes any method >3× median.

Analyst Consensus
40%
Wall St. mean target
Two-Stage DCF
25%
FCF → WACC → Terminal
Ben Graham
20%
EPS × (8.5+2g) × Y
EV/EBITDA
15%
Sub-industry multiple
Sample — Top Stocks
Ticker Price Fair Value Upside Rating
Full Fair Value Scanner
● 20 Stocks + Live Lookup
🔍 Live Ticker Lookup
S&P 500 Top 20 — Daily Scan
Ticker Price Fair Value Upside Analyst DCF Graham EV/EB Rating Class
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