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US STRIKES GORUK + QESHM ISLAND AT STRAIT — IRGC KUWAIT RETALIATION INTERCEPTED — TRUMP ‘RAPID PACE’ + LEBANON CEASEFIRE PUSH — NETANYAHU DEFIES (Day 94, Mon Jun 1 ~19:15Z): US CENTCOM struck Iranian radar and drone command sites on Goruk (coastal) and Qeshm Island in/at the Strait of Hormuz in self-defense operations (Saturday-Sunday, confirmed CBS/CNBC June 1). Iran’s IRGC retaliated by striking a US-affiliated airbase in Kuwait with missiles and drones — all intercepted by Kuwait air defenses (Kuwait Army). Kuwait MFA held Iran “fully responsible.” Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran talks are “continuing at a rapid pace” and separately claimed to have spoken with both Netanyahu AND Hezbollah about Lebanon saying “all shooting will stop” — directly addressing Iran’s stated suspension condition. Netanyahu immediately defied Trump, ordering new IDF strikes on Beirut Dahiyeh neighborhood and saying military operations will “continue as planned.” Iran FM Baqaei confirmed suspension remains in effect at weekly press briefing: “The United States is also violating the ceasefire including this morning.” Iran’s Lebanon condition restated: “We insist that a ceasefire in Lebanon is an essential condition for any deal.” A drone also struck a cargo ship ~74km SE of Umm Qasr in the Arabian Gulf — new maritime incident. Net: Trump Lebanon push modestly de-escalatory on diplomatic track, but Netanyahu defiance + ongoing military exchanges cap relief. SOS DN2 to 80 HIGH. Ceasefire Risk DN3 to 86 EXTREME. War Risk DN2 to 87 HIGH. Escalation DN3 to 87 EXTREME. Hormuz DN2 to 85 HIGH. War Res UP3 to 41 LOW. Bull UP2 to 16%. Bear DN3 to 45%.

IRAN SUSPENDS MEDIATED NEGOTIATIONS WITH US — THREATENS COMPLETE HORMUZ CLOSURE + BAB AL-MANDAB ACTIVATION — OIL +$5 (Day 94, Mon Jun 1 ~16:10Z): Tehran suspended all exchanges with the US via mediators (Euronews / CNN / NBC / France24 / RTE ~16:00Z). Official Iranian statement: “Considering that Lebanon was one of the preconditions for the ceasefire and that this ceasefire has now been violated on all fronts, including Lebanon, the Iranian negotiating team is suspending dialogues and exchange of texts through mediators.” Iran and the Axis of Resistance declared intent to pursue the COMPLETE CLOSURE of the Strait of Hormuz and activate the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Oil prices rose +$5/barrel on the Tasnim report. Jun 2–3 State Dept political talks now in serious jeopardy. Ceasefire breakdown risk: EXTREME. SOS UP6 to 82 HIGH (now revised to 80 DN2 at 19:15Z). War Res DN8 to 38 LOW.

IRAN NAVY FIRES ON 4 HORMUZ SHIPS — GCC CONDEMNS KUWAIT STRIKES ‘STRONGEST TERMS’ — TRUMP NUCLEAR RED LINE (Day 94, Mon Jun 1 ~14:30Z): Iranian Navy fired warning shots at 4 vessels attempting to transit Hormuz without authorization (NBC News, 14:26Z); 2 stopped in place, 2 forced to turn back. Iranian Navy cited altered navigation systems; threatened “harsh response” if US strikes continue. 26 ships permitted under IRGC coordination in last 24hrs. The full Gulf Cooperation Council condemned Iranian attacks on Kuwait in the “strongest terms”: “treacherous attacks,” “flagrant violation” of international law. Trump at press pool: “Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon” / will not be rushed. IDF struck Tyre, killing 14 ahead of Washington talks. Oman mine alert active. Blockade D94: 35 vessels. Brent $92.75 (+1.8%). VIX 17.2 (+12.3%). Prior escalation UP2 to SOS 76 / Escalation 85 / Ceasefire Risk 81 / War Risk 84 / Hormuz 82 (all superseded by ~16:10Z refresh above).

IRGC STRIKES US BASE IN KUWAIT — US STRUCK SIRIK ISLAND COMM TOWER (HORMOZGAN) — ARAGHCHI: MOU TALKS “SPECULATION” (Day 94, Mon Jun 1 ~09:00Z): Iran’s IRGC Aerospace Force launched a retaliatory strike against the US airbase in Kuwait after CENTCOM struck a communications tower on Sirik Island in Iran’s Hormozgan Province. CENTCOM framed its strike as self-defense in response to an Iranian MQ-1 drone shootdown over international waters; said it targeted Iranian air defenses, a ground control station, and two one-way attack drones. Kuwait’s air defense systems intercepted missiles and drones; sirens sounded across the country. Kuwait’s MFA formally condemned Iran’s attacks on its territory: “continuation and repetition of these aggressions undermine de-escalation efforts.” No US casualties confirmed. On the diplomatic front: Iranian FM Araghchi called MOU talks “speculation” that “should not be taken seriously until certain.” FM Baghaei cited “severe suspicion and mistrust,” Washington’s “constantly changing views,” and Israel’s Lebanon attacks as reasons for delay in the diplomatic process. Trump Truth Social (late Sunday): Iran “really wants to make a deal” and to “sit back and relax, it will all work out.” 3-day Iran response window to Trump’s tightened terms ongoing. Three language gaps persist: $12B frozen assets, nuclear framing, HEU disposal. Blockade D94: 35 vessels. Oman mine alert active. Escalation UP2 to 83 HIGH. Ceasefire Risk UP2 to 79 HIGH. War Risk UP2 to 82 HIGH. Hormuz UP1 to 80 HIGH. War Res DN2 to 48 LOW. SOS UP1 to 74 HIGH. Bull DN2 to 26%. Bear UP2 to 29%.

BLOOMBERG CONFIRMS MOU AGREED — MARKETS RALLY — PENTAGON TRACK UNDERWAY (Day 91, Fri May 29 ~12:00Z): Bloomberg (May 29) confirmed US and Iranian negotiators have reached agreement on the 60-day MOU framework. Terms confirmed: Hormuz shipping unrestricted with no tolls, Iran removes all mines within 30 days, US lifts port blockade proportionally, Iranian no-nuclear-weapon commitment, 60-day HEU/enrichment negotiations. Trump has NOT signed off — “wants a couple of days to think about it”; VP says it’s “TBD.” Bessent: “Everything depends on what the president wants to do.” Khamenei approval unconfirmed — Times of Israel: “no indication.” Physical blockade D91 intact: 35 IRGC-permitted vessels. Blockade stays until MOU certified. Markets strongly de-risked: SPX +5.9% to 7,564 (fully reversed May 28 IRGC-attack crash and broke above May 27 record close); Brent -3.9% to $92.48; VIX -6.6% to 15.74; 10Y -10bp to 4.40%. War Res UP 3 to 55 MODERATE. Ceasefire Risk DN 3 to 70 HIGH. War Risk DN 2 to 76 HIGH. Escalation DN 3 to 74 HIGH. Turbulence DN 6 to 64 MODERATE. SOS 70 HIGH (DN1). Bull UP to 36%. Bear DN to 19%.

US-IRAN NEGOTIATORS REACH TENTATIVE 60-DAY MOU — TRUMP + KHAMENEI SIGN-OFF PENDING (Day 90, Thu May 28 21:00Z): US and Iranian negotiators reached a tentative 60-day MOU framework — the most concrete deal structure of the conflict. Terms: Hormuz shipping unrestricted with no tolls, Iran removes mines within 30 days, US lifts port blockade gradually, Iranian no-nuclear-weapon commitment, 60-day HEU/enrichment negotiations (CNN / Euronews / Axios / ABC / The Hill / CNBC May 28). Trump has not signed off — “wants a couple of days to think about it.” Treasury’s Bessent: “Everything depends on what the president wants to do.” Mojtaba Khamenei has not approved — Times of Israel: “no indication” of his sign-off. Strait still physically blocked: 35 IRGC-permitted vessels. Blockade stays until MOU certified. War Res UP 10 to 52. Ceasefire Risk DN 7 to 73. War Risk DN 5 to 78. Escalation DN 6 to 77. SOS 71 HIGH (DN5). Bull UP to 34%. Bear DN to 21%.

CENTCOM ‘EGREGIOUS CEASEFIRE VIOLATION’ — IRAN BALLISTIC MISSILE INTERCEPTED OVER KUWAIT — 5 HORMUZ DRONES INTERCEPTED — ISRAEL WARNS MILITARY RESUMPTION (Day 90, Thu May 28 18:00Z): CENTCOM issued its strongest-ever ceasefire-violation designation — “egregious” — for Iran’s ballistic missile launch toward Kuwait (launched 02:17Z May 28; Kuwaiti forces intercepted). First confirmed Iranian ballistic missile targeting a GCC state in this conflict. 5 one-way attack drones near Hormuz intercepted by US forces; 6th launch prevented at Bandar Abbas. Kuwait air defenses activated across multiple vectors. Israel’s ambassador to the US warned Iran that Israel may resume its own military campaign if diplomatic track fails (Iran International). Khamenei message to parliament praised Ghalibaf’s negotiations — marginal positive. IRGC confirmed 26 vessels transited Hormuz with permits; unauthorized vessels forced back. War Risk UP1 to 83 HIGH. Ceasefire Risk UP1 to 80 HIGH. Escalation UP1 to 83 HIGH. War Res DN1 to 42 LOW. SOS 76 HIGH (UNCH). Bear UP to 29%.

CENTCOM NEW MINE-COUNTER STRIKES NEAR HORMUZ — IRAN ‘GROSS CEASEFIRE VIOLATION’ — TRUMP: HORMUZ ‘OPEN TO EVERYBODY, US WATCHES’ (Day 90, Thu May 28 00:12Z): CENTCOM conducted additional self-defense strikes on May 27 targeting missile sites and mine-laying boats near the Strait of Hormuz — the third kinetic exchange since May 26 00:11Z. Iran’s FM formally declared these strikes a “gross violation” of the April 8 ceasefire — the strongest diplomatic language to date. Trump publicly confirmed the Strait will be “open to everybody” with the US “watching over it” as part of deal terms under active negotiation (CNN / Al Jazeera). Bloomberg reports Hormuz traffic fades to a crawl after supertankers exit. Qatar MOU talks ongoing. Structural closure D90: 35 vessels / 240 in queue. Escalation UP1 to 77 HIGH. War Risk UP1 to 78 HIGH. Ceasefire Risk UP1 to 74 HIGH. Hormuz UP2 to 80 HIGH. SOS 72 HIGH (unch). War Res 48 LOW (unch).

BRENT $100.40 (+6.1%) — IRAN FM ‘FLAGRANT CEASEFIRE VIOLATION’ — INTERNET BLACKOUT PARTIALLY LIFTED (Day 88, Tue May 26 17:00Z): Brent crude surged from $94.69 to $100.40 (+$5.71, +6.1%), fully reversing the Memorial Day drop and crossing back above $100. Iran’s Foreign Ministry formally accused the US of a “flagrant violation” of the April 8 ceasefire — the most explicit state-level diplomatic accusation since the ceasefire began. Iran’s 88-day internet blackout was partially lifted, a minor confidence-building gesture. US military strikes in southern Iran (confirmed targeting missile launch sites and mine-laying vessels) are driving the oil move. Trump stated negotiations are “proceeding nicely.” Physical blockade unchanged: 35 vessels / 240 in queue (unch). Turbulence UP3 to 71 HIGH. War Risk UP1 to 78 HIGH. Ceasefire Risk UP1 to 73 HIGH. Escalation Risk UP1 to 78 HIGH. Recession Risk UP3 to 68 HIGH. War Res DN1 to 50 LOW. SOS UP1 to 72 HIGH. Hormuz 78 HIGH (unch).

IRGC CLAIMS MQ-9 SHOOT-DOWN + FIRES AT F-35 — RUBIO ‘STRAIT WILL REOPEN’ — AUSTRIA NUCLEAR INTEL (Day 88, Tue May 26 14:00Z): Iran’s IRGC claimed to shoot down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone over the Persian Gulf and fire on an F-35 fighter jet and a surveillance drone that entered Iranian airspace. This is the first confirmed Iranian destruction of a US military asset since the April 8 ceasefire. CENTCOM insists the ceasefire remains intact but kinetic tit-for-tat exchanges are accelerating. Separately, Secretary of State Rubio upgraded his language to “Strait WILL reopen, one way or the other” — more confident than prior “chance” framing but implying military contingency if talks fail; Rubio also said the deal “could take a couple of days.” Austria’s domestic intelligence service (BVT) reported Iran’s nuclear weapons program is “well-advanced” with ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads — directly complicating the nuclear annex of the MOU. US markets reopened after Memorial Day: Brent fell to $94.69 (-3.1%), below $95 for the first time. Gold +1.9% to $4,607 (safe-haven). 10Y -9bp to 4.48% (risk-off/deal cross-currents). BTC -1.9% to $74,677. Physical blockade unchanged. 35 vessels / 240 in queue (unch). Escalation UP4 to 77 HIGH. Ceasefire Risk UP4 to 72 HIGH. War Res DN2 to 51 LOW. Turbulence UP3 to 68 HIGH. SOS UP2 to 71 HIGH. Hormuz 78 HIGH (unch). Bull prob 36% (-2). Bear risk 20% (+2). Next: May 29 Pentagon security track.

CENTCOM SELF-DEFENSE STRIKES ON IRANIAN MISSILE SITES + MINE-LAYING SHIPS NEAR BANDAR ABBAS (Day 88, Tue May 26 00:11Z): US CENTCOM conducted self-defense strikes against Iranian missile launch sites and mine-laying vessels near Bandar Abbas, Strait of Hormuz. Multiple major news outlets confirmed (NBC News / CBS / CNN / ABC / Times of Israel). Targets: IRGC missile launchers and boats actively emplacing mines. CENTCOM: strikes were self-defense and the ceasefire remains in place. This is the first kinetic exchange since the April 8 ceasefire. Simultaneously: Rubio says “chance” Iran accepts deal today; Iran confirming MOU finalization focus. Physical blockade unchanged. 35 vessels / 240 in queue. Escalation UP2 to 73. Ceasefire Risk UP2 to 68. War Res UP1 to 53. SOS UP1 to 69 ELEVATED. Hormuz 78 HIGH (unch).

PETRAEUS ‘IRAN BLINKING’ ON HORMUZ — IRAN DEMANDS TOLLS + URANIUM RETENTION (Day 87, Mon May 25 23:00Z): Ex-CIA Director David Petraeus (CNBC) stated Iran is in the “process of blinking” over the Strait of Hormuz. Petraeus said a successful deal would see the Strait opened without conditions — no tolls, no Iranian control of traffic, no future-closure threats — and “it appears that that may be in the offing.” Credible and directionally positive signal from respected former intelligence chief. Offset: Iran is simultaneously insisting on keeping enriched uranium stockpile within Iran and levying tolls for Strait passage — the specific 1-2 clause gap (Tasnim). These Iran demands directly conflict with the Axios-leaked MOU (“no tolls”) and US uranium redlines. Net: deal direction intact but gap real. 35 vessels / 240 in queue (unch). Blockade confirmed. War Res UP1 to 52 LOW. All other scores UNCH. SOS 68 ELEVATED (unch). Hormuz 78 HIGH (unch). Next: May 29 Pentagon security track.

TRUMP ‘PROCEEDING NICELY’ — BRENT BELOW $100 AT $97.72 (Day 87, Mon May 25 20:00Z): Trump stated peace deal talks are “proceeding nicely” — a positive tone shift from Rubio’s 17:00Z “another way” contingency signal. Brent crude futures dropped to $97.72 (-2.5%), breaking below $100 for the first time as markets price deal progress. Trump previously described MOU as “largely negotiated.” MOU not yet signed; blockade remains confirmed until deal certified. 35 vessels / 240 in queue (unch). Ceasefire Risk DN2 to 66. Escalation DN2 to 71. War Res UP2 to 51. SOS 68 ELEVATED (unch). Hormuz 78 HIGH (unch). Next: May 29 Pentagon security track.

RUBIO ‘ANOTHER WAY’ IF TALKS FAIL — TRUMP: CRITICS ‘KNOW NOTHING’ — MOU ‘FEW MORE DAYS’ (Day 87, Mon May 25 17:00Z): Secretary of State Rubio, from New Delhi, stated: “We’re either going to have a good agreement, or we’re going to have to deal with it another way.” First Cabinet-level explicit military contingency since ceasefire. Trump responded to deal critics: “know nothing” about the potential agreement. Senior official: MOU “could take a few more days.” Rubio: “pretty solid thing on the table” covering Hormuz + nuclear negotiations. 35 vessels / 240 in queue (unch). Blockade confirmed. War Risk UP1 to 71. Ceasefire Risk UP1 to 68. War Res DN1 to 49. Escalation UP1 to 73. SOS 68 ELEVATED (unch). Hormuz 78 HIGH (unch). Next: May 29 Pentagon security track.

SUNDAY WINDOW CLOSED — TRUMP ‘NOT RUSHING / TIME ON OUR SIDE’ — BLOCKADE CONFIRMED (Day 87, Mon May 25 00:10Z): Sunday ended without signing despite CBS “broad principles agreed” and full-day “imminent” signals. Trump posted overnight: “not to rush into a deal” and confirmed blockade stays until deal “certified and signed.” Deal framework intact (60-day MOU: no tolls, Iran clears mines, US lifts port blockade, nuclear deferred to Phase 2) but Tasnim 1-2 clause gap persists. 35 vessels IRGC-coordinated / 240 in queue (unch). War Res DN 1 to 53 LOW. Ceasefire Risk UP 1 to 63 ELEVATED. SOS 66 ELEVATED (unch). Hormuz 78 HIGH (unch). Next: May 29 Pentagon security track / Jun 2–3 State Dept political talks.

CNN/WAPO DEAL TERMS PUBLIC — 30-DAY HORMUZ + 60-DAY NUCLEAR (Day 86, Sun May 24 18:10Z): CNN and Washington Post published specific deal terms — 30-day window for Hormuz reopening measures + 60-day period for nuclear negotiations. Rubio: “Good News On Iran Could Come Later Today.” No signing as of 18:10Z — Sunday window extending toward evening. 33 vessels transiting / 240 in queue (unch). Pakistan FM Munir active mediator. Deal not signed. War res UP 2 to 53 LOW. Hormuz DN 2 to 78 HIGH. Ceasefire risk DN 2 to 63 ELEVATED. SOS DN 1 to 66 ELEVATED. · TRUMP ‘LARGELY NEGOTIATED’ — 33 VESSELS TRANSITING / 240 IN QUEUE (Day 86, Sun May 24 14:30Z): Trump confirms deal “largely negotiated” including Hormuz reopening. Al Jazeera: US-Iran “inch closer to deal.” 33 vessels transiting with IRGC coordination (up from 26); 240 ships in queue. Pakistan FM Munir confirmed key mediator. Sunday afternoon announcement expected. Deal not signed. War res UP 2 to 51 LOW. Hormuz DN 2 to 80 HIGH. Ceasefire risk DN 1 to 65 ELEVATED. SOS DN 1 to 67 ELEVATED. · MOU TERMS LEAKED (AXIOS 03:19Z) — NO TOLLS + IRAN CLEARS MINES + US LIFTS PORT BLOCKADE (Day 86, Sun May 24 10:11Z): Axios exclusive (Barak Ravid): 60-day MOU with no tolls — Iran agrees to clear mines and reopen Hormuz freely; US lifts blockade on Iranian ports and issues sanctions waivers for Iranian oil sales. Nuclear: Iran commits to never pursuing weapons and to negotiate enrichment suspension and stockpile removal — deferred to Phase 2. Pakistan Field Marshal Asim Munir confirmed as primary mediator (was in Tehran Fri-Sat). Trump conference call with UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, Turkey, Pakistan — all support deal. Deal has “not been finalized and could still fall apart.” IRAN DISPUTES HORMUZ SOVEREIGNTY: Iran state media (Fars) contradicts Trump — Hormuz will stay under Iranian management per latest text exchange. NETANYAHU CONCERN: Netanyahu raised concerns about Israel-Hezbollah deal component in call with Trump Saturday; made case “in respectful and deferential way.” War resolution UP 1 to 47 LOW. Ceasefire risk UP 1 to 68 HIGH. Hormuz DN 1 to 82 HIGH. SOS 70 HIGH (unch). Bear risk up to 20%. · TRUMP: DEAL ‘LARGELY NEGOTIATED’ — INCLUDES HORMUZ REOPENING — ‘ONLY IF WE GET EVERYTHING WE WANT’ (Day 85, Sat May 23 22:00Z): Trump upgraded language from “50-50 odds” (21:00Z) to deal “largely negotiated” and confirmed deal will include reopening of the Strait of Hormuz (CBS News live updates, 22:00Z). Added conditionality: “only if we get everything we want” — preserving US leverage on uranium terms and Hormuz toll mechanism. VP Vance, Witkoff, Kushner + Iran Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf on board. Announcement expected Sunday afternoon. Structural closure D85 intact; no physical change; PGSA 26 vessels/24hr. War resolution UP 4 to 46 LOW. SOS DN 1 to 70 HIGH. Ceasefire risk DN 3 to 67 HIGH. War risk DN 2 to 72 HIGH. Escalation DN 2 to 75 HIGH. Bull prob 37% (up 4). · WASHINGTON TIMES EXCLUSIVE: VANCE/WITKOFF/KUSHNER APPROVED DRAFT — DEAL WITHIN 24 HOURS / TRUMP ‘50-50’ (Day 85, Sat May 23 21:00Z): Washington Times sources report VP J.D. Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner have approved the draft deal text; announcement expected within 24 hours by Sunday afternoon. Trump told Axios the odds are “50-50” and that he will meet with advisers later Saturday, with a decision by Sunday; Trump added if no deal he would “blow Iran to kingdom come.” Iran FM Baqaei: “very far from and very close to an agreement.” Bloomberg: “Iran Peace Deal Push Intensifies as Fragile Ceasefire Holds.” NBC News: “US-Iran officials signal progress.” CNBC/FT: US and Iran closing in on 60-day extension framework. Deal terms: 60-day extension + gradual Hormuz reopening + uranium dilution/transfer + sanctions easing. Structural closure D85 intact; no physical change; PGSA 26 vessels/24hr. War resolution UP 9 to 42 LOW. SOS DN 1 to 71 HIGH. Ceasefire risk DN 5 to 70 HIGH. War risk DN 3 to 74 HIGH. Escalation DN 3 to 77 HIGH. Bull prob 33% (up 8). · IRAN FM CONFIRMS ‘FINAL STAGES’ OF FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT / RUBIO ‘NEWS LATER TODAY’ (Day 85, Sat May 23 18:00Z): Iranian FM Baqaei confirmed Tehran is “in the final stages of drafting a framework agreement.” Rubio, from India, said “there may be news later today.” Pakistan Army Chief Munir’s overnight talks produced “encouraging progress.” Reports from The Week, CNBC, and FT: 60-day extension + gradual Hormuz reopening + sanctions easing in draft. Trump to review Sunday. War resolution UP 5 to 33. SOS DN 2 to 72. Ceasefire risk DN 5 to 75. Escalation DN 2 to 80. Bull prob 25%. · DIPLOMATIC SURGE — MUNIR IN TEHRAN OVERNIGHT / ARAGHCHI MULTI-PARTY TALKS / IRAN ‘NARROWED THE GAPS’ (Day 85, Sat May 23 15:00Z): Pakistan Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir visited Tehran Friday night for late-into-the-night talks with FM Araghchi — the highest-profile Pakistan-Iran engagement since mediation began. Simultaneously, Araghchi held separate talks with FMs of Oman, Turkey, Qatar, and Iraq, plus UN Secretary General Guterres. Iran characterized the US proposal as having “narrowed the gaps” (Bloomberg May 21–23) — more concrete than prior “inches away” language. Bloomberg: “Iran peace deal push intensifies as fragile ceasefire holds.” Diplomatic intensity is highest in weeks. War resolution UP 1 to 28 LOW. SOS 74 HIGH unch. No new kinetic events. PGSA 26 vessels/24hr. · ROME ROUND 5 ENDS WITHOUT BREAKTHROUGH — TALKS CONTINUE (Day 85, Sat May 23 00:00Z): The fifth round of US-Iran talks in Rome concluded without a formal agreement; both sides committed to continuing discussions (House of Commons Library / Wikipedia / Congress.gov May 23). Al Arabiya “within hours” announcement window (Fri May 22 evening) did not materialize. Nuclear dismantlement gap remains the unresolved core issue. Pakistan mediation still active. Ceasefire on life support. PGSA 26 vessels/24hr. · AL ARABIYA LEAKS “FINAL DRAFT” US-IRAN DEAL (Day 84, Fri May 22 21:00Z): Saudi outlet Al Arabiya published what it claims is the “final draft” of a Pakistani-mediated US-Iran framework — immediate ceasefire, Hormuz navigation guarantees, gradual sanctions lift. Draft does NOT include nuclear dismantlement (core US redline). “Within hours” announcement pending approval — window now missed. PGSA 26 vessels/24hr. · KHAMENEI ORDERS ENRICHED URANIUM STAYS IN IRAN (Day 84, Fri May 22 18:00Z): Iran’s Supreme Leader ordered the country’s enriched uranium stockpile to remain in the Islamic Republic — complicating the central US demand. US-Iran showed “little progress” per earlier CNBC reporting. Two Chinese supertankers exited Hormuz (4M bbls). Brent $104.52. · PAKISTAN ARMY CHIEF MUNIR IN TEHRAN FOR MOU ACCEPTANCE (Day 83, Thu May 21 20:10Z): Munir aimed at “officially announcing acceptance of MOU” per ISNA — most concrete diplomatic step since May 11. US Marines board Celestial Sea. IRGC: “regional war beyond region.” Trump calls off Tuesday attack after Gulf leaders. · TRUMP CALLS OFF TUE MAY 19 STRIKE — GULF ALLIES INTERVENE (Day 80, Mon May 18 22:00Z): Trump announced on Truth Social he called off a Phase-2 strike on Iran “scheduled for tomorrow” after personal requests from Qatar emir Sheikh Tamim, Saudi Crown Prince MBS, and UAE President MBZ, citing “serious negotiations now taking place.” Trump simultaneously instructed US military to “be prepared to go forward with a full, large scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice, in the event that an acceptable Deal is not reached” (Bloomberg / PBS / CBC / Review Journal May 18). Gulf-brokered pause is the most significant external de-escalation signal of the conflict; strike being planned and called off simultaneously shows both the proximity to kinetic resumption and the diplomatic buffer. SOS 79 HIGH (dn 1). War Risk 87 HIGH (dn 2). Ceasefire Risk 88 HIGH (dn 2). War Resolution 20 LOW (up 3). Hormuz 85 HIGH (unch). · TRUMP “CLOCK TICKING / WON’T BE ANYTHING LEFT” — SAUDI ARABIA INTERCEPTS 3 DRONES (IRAQI AIRSPACE) (Day 80, Mon May 18 13:00Z): Trump warns on Truth Social that Iran must “get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them”; tells Axios Iran is “going to get hit much harder.” Saudi Arabia intercepted 3 drones entering from Iraqi airspace (NBC / France24 May 18) — GCC drone campaign expands to second nation beyond UAE. Stacked on Day 79 Barakah nuclear plant strike. IEA head Birol at G7 Paris: commercial oil inventories depleting rapidly, “few weeks left.” Iran FM Baghaei: “not intimidated” but talks ongoing, responded to new US proposal, firm on enrichment rights. Sen. Lindsey Graham (Meet the Press): ramp up military action immediately. Global markets tumble: Brent $111.20 (+1.8%), SPX 7,335 (-1.0%), VIX 21.0 (+13.9%), BTC below $77K, 10Y 4.63% (12-month high). · TRUMP REJECTS IRAN PROPOSAL “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE” — CEASEFIRE “ON MASSIVE LIFE SUPPORT” (Day 79, Sun May 17 19:30Z): Trump publicly rejected Iran’s MOU response; declared ceasefire “on massive life support” (CNN / May 17); Iran defiant response fueling fears ceasefire could collapse within days; oil prices +$3/barrel on failed agreement; formal bilateral rejection exchange overtakes 16:30Z “closing in on framework” signal · PAKISTAN FM NAQVI COMPLETES 2-DAY TEHRAN VISIT: back-channel concluded with ceasefire holding as of 16:30Z (May 17) — now overshadowed by Trump rejection · ToI: US-IRAN CLOSING IN ON FRAMEWORK FOR PERMANENT DEAL (May 17): Times of Israel reports US and Iran closing in on one-page 14-point MoU framework for permanent peace, crafted by Witkoff/Kushner + Iranian officials; “nothing agreed yet”; signal overtaken by Trump rejection · IRAN NEW SUPREME LEADER ISSUES MILITARY DIRECTIVES: Mojtaba Khamenei — appearing publicly for the first time since the war began — “issued new and decisive directives for the continuation of operations and the powerful confrontation with the enemies” while meeting with head of joint military command (PBS / Times of Israel / RFERL May 16) · KHAMENEI FORMALLY REJECTS TRUMP NUCLEAR PROPOSAL: new SL rejects US deal proposal, vows to keep enriching uranium (Times of Israel May 16) · US THREATENS MILITARY RESPONSE: Washington signals possible military response after Tehran rejects nuclear outreach (RFERL May 16) · IRAN FIRES ON INDIAN VESSELS IN HORMUZ: Iranian forces fired warning shots and projectile at two Indian-flagged vessels Saturday to force them to turn back — UKMTO 51st incident (CBSNews / UKMTO May 16) · IRAN ANNOUNCES FORMAL HORMUZ TOLL MECHANISM: parliament security head Azizi says Iran will soon unveil a formal traffic-management mechanism with “necessary fees” for cooperating vessels — closed to Project Freedom operators; first official state formalization of the toll system (Arab News / WION / Haaretz / Investing.com May 16) · USS GERALD R. FORD RETURNS HOME TO NORFOLK: world’s largest carrier docked at Naval Station Norfolk Saturday with ~5,000 sailors after 11-month deployment; reduces US theater naval presence (CBSNews May 16) · TRUMP SENDS IRAN FORMAL NUCLEAR PROPOSAL: warns swift progress necessary to avoid serious consequences; KHAMENEI REJECTS AS “EXCESSIVE AND OUTRAGEOUS” (May 16) · IRAN-EU ISTANBUL NUCLEAR TALKS (FIRST SINCE CEASEFIRE): Iran held nuclear talks with European powers in Istanbul Saturday — new European diplomatic channel alongside US-Oman-Iran track (PBS / Al Jazeera May 16) · ARAGHCHI: UN SNAPBACK SANCTIONS REINSTATEMENT WOULD BE “IRREVERSIBLE / GRAVE MISCALCULATION”: warns European alignment with Washington could severely damage Europe’s global credibility and negotiations framework; calibrated ahead of EU snapback deadline (Newsweek / Al Jazeera May 16) · FUJAIRAH FLOATING ARMOURY SEIZED (HUI CHUAN; HONDURAS-FLAG): IRAN REDIRECTS VESSEL TO IRANIAN WATERS — UKMTO 49TH INCIDENT SINCE FEB 28: Honduras-flagged Hui Chuan (identified by Vanguard as a “floating armoury” for weapons storage) boarded ~38nm northeast of Fujairah (UAE); redirected to Iranian waters; 3rd Iran vessel seizure since Feb 28 (UKMTO / MarineLog / NPR / WION / Al Arabiya / Jerusalem Post May 14-15) · ARAGHCHI: ENRICHED URANIUM TALKS “IN DEADLOCK” — ENRICHMENT POSTPONED TO LATER STAGE / RUSSIA OFFERED TO STORE IRAN ENRICHED STOCKPILE: Iran FM Araghchi (BRICS meeting, New Delhi) explicitly admits enriched uranium talks deadlocked; both sides agree to postpone to later negotiations stage; Russia offers to store Iran’s enriched stockpile; Araghchi says Iran doubts US “seriousness” (Al Jazeera / WION May 15) — most explicit diplomatic admission of nuclear-track stalemate to date · LEBANON-ISRAEL 45-DAY EXTENSION CONFIRMED AFTER 3RD ROUND DC TALKS: Trump announces deal (State Dept / PBS / Bloomberg / CNBC May 15); ceasefire valid through ~early July; dual-track process: political talks Jun 2–3 at State Dept, security track May 29 at Pentagon — structured political and security process underway; market close: SPX +0.8%, VIX -3.4%, Gold -1.3% · UK DEPLOYS DRONES / FIGHTER AIRCRAFT / ROYAL NAVY WARSHIP (HMS DRAGON TYPE-45) TO HORMUZ INTERNATIONAL DEFENSIVE MISSION — UK-France 40+-nation coalition operationalizing; French carrier Charles de Gaulle pre-positioned; participants include minesweeping, commercial escorts, aerial support; Iran: “immediate and decisive response” to foreign warships · BAHRAIN UN SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTION: 112 CO-SPONSORS — diplomatic pressure on Iran intensifying; UNSC vote pending · INDIAN CARGO VESSEL MSV HAJ ALI SUNK OFF OMAN COAST — drone/missile strike, all 14 crew rescued; India condemns attack (NPR / Bloomberg / India MFA May 15) — first vessel sinking in this conflict cycle; UKMTO incident count now 48 · VESSEL SEIZED NEAR FUJAIRAH CONFIRMED DIVERTED TO IRAN (UKMTO; 38nm NE Fujairah; 49th incident since Feb 28; 28 attacks, 18 suspicious activity, 2 hijacks; Hui Chuan identified as floating armoury) · IRAN VP AREF: “strait belongs to Iran, won’t give it up at any price” · TRUMP-XI SUMMIT DAY 2 JOINT STATEMENT: XI PLEDGES NOT TO PROVIDE MILITARY EQUIPMENT TO IRAN — CHINA COMMITTED TO HELPING REOPEN HORMUZ — BESSENT CONFIRMS CHINA ROLE (CNBC / White House May 14) — Xi pledge removes China arms-supply tail risk; key bear-path input materially reduced · LEBANON VIOLENCE: 12 killed today including children (health ministry May 15) — ceasefire fragile despite extension track · TRUMP-XI SUMMIT DAY 1 CONCLUDED — JOINT STATEMENT: BOTH AGREE “HORMUZ MUST REMAIN OPEN TO SUPPORT FREE FLOW OF ENERGY” / XI EXPLICITLY OPPOSES TOLL SYSTEM AND “MILITARIZATION” OF STRAIT / BOTH AGREE “IRAN CAN NEVER HAVE NUCLEAR WEAPON” (CNBC / White House May 14); Rubio confirms (NBC May 14) · IRAN SETS 5 PRECONDITIONS FOR RESUMING NEGOTIATIONS including lifting sanctions and compensation for war damages; talks stalled (CBS / CNN May 14) · IRAN FAST-BOAT SWARM: 342 boats across 5 Hormuz zones (down from 454 but elevated; Fox News May 13); total halt in commercial movement; all large-hull vessels stationary · IRAN EXPANDING HORMUZ DEFINITION as “vast operational area” far beyond historical strait boundaries · PRIOR: 52 SENATORS + 177 CONGRESSMEN write Trump rejecting any deal allowing Iran to continue uranium enrichment (Reuters / Axios May 14); UNSC vote on US-Bahrain 112-nation resolution pending · TRUMP-XI SUMMIT OPENED BEIJING MAY 13 — ONE DAY AHEAD OF “MAY 14-15” CLIFF WINDOW — Iran war / Hormuz / China oil security top of bilateral agenda; US pressing Xi to leverage Iran on reopening; China sources ~60% crude via Hormuz; no breakthrough announced (CNBC / Al Jazeera / Chatham House / BusinessToday May 13) · TRUMP AIDES SAY FRUSTRATED TRUMP NOW “MORE SERIOUSLY THINKING OF RESTARTING COMBAT OPERATIONS” IN IRAN — decision deferred post-summit (CNN / Gulf News May 12) — MOST EXPLICIT PHASE-2 SIGNAL SINCE BANDAR ABBAS/QESHM (MAY 7) · IRAN PARLIAMENT SPEAKER GHALIBAF: “ARMED FORCES PREPARED FOR LESSON-GIVING RESPONSE” / “PREPARED FOR EVERY OPTION” / US HAS “NO ALTERNATIVE BUT TO ACCEPT” TEHRAN’S 14-POINT PROPOSAL · UK-FRANCE 40+-NATION HORMUZ DEFENSE MINISTERS MEETING CONCLUDED (MAY 12) — NO OPERATIONAL ACTIVATION ANNOUNCED · FRANCE DENIES “AGGRESSIVE INTENT” IN HORMUZ; MULTINATIONAL ESCORT/MINESWEEPING MISSION FRAMED AS DEFENSIVE · UK HMS DRAGON + FRANCE CHARLES DE GAULLE NUCLEAR CARRIER PRE-POSITIONED · IRAN: “IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE RESPONSE” TO FOREIGN WARSHIPS INTACT · MUNITIONS-SHORTAGE CONCERN IF PHASE-2 COMBAT RESUMES (Military Times May 12) · TRUMP DECLARES CEASEFIRE “ON MASSIVE LIFE SUPPORT” / “1% CHANCE OF LIVING” / SEEKS “COMPLETE VICTORY” — BRANDS IRAN COUNTER “GARBAGE” / “STUPID” (WaPo / CNN / CNBC / Al Jazeera / Bloomberg / India TV / CBS May 11) · ARAMCO CEO NASSER WARNS NORMALIZATION COULD SLIP INTO 2027 IF DELAY EXTENDS “A FEW MORE WEEKS” (Bloomberg May 11) · MAY 11 OMAN ROUND-4 CONCLUDED “DIFFICULT BUT USEFUL” after 3+ hours of direct-and-indirect Witkoff-Araghchi talks under Omani mediation; both sides agreed to continue and Oman will coordinate Round-5 (PBS / Times of Israel / FDD / Al Jazeera / The National May 11) · NO BREAKTHROUGH; Iran reiterated nuclear enrichment “non-negotiable” (Al Jazeera May 9-11); Iran counter-proposal demands SOVEREIGNTY OVER HORMUZ + WAR-DAMAGES COMPENSATION + FROZEN-ASSET RELEASE + SANCTIONS LIFT · LEBANON FRONT EXPLODES TO 182 KILLED MONDAY — HIGHEST SINGLE-DAY DEATH TOLL OF THE ISRAEL-HEZBOLLAH WAR + 890 WOUNDED per Lebanon health ministry (Al Jazeera / CBSN May 11) · UN SEC-GEN: ISRAEL LEBANON ACTIVITY “POSES A GRAVE RISK” TO THE FRAGILE US-IRAN TRUCE · IRAN SIGNALS POTENTIAL DEAL WITHDRAWAL AND IS SUSPENDING HORMUZ TANKER TRAFFIC over Israel’s Lebanon actions (Iranian state media / CBS News May 11) · BRENT EXTENDS TO $105.76 (+4.9% INTRADAY) AND WTI TO $100.30 (+5.0%) IN US CASH SESSION — oil tape now confirms no-breakthrough Round-4 read (CNBC / CNN May 11); SPX ~7,355 (-0.6% intraday); VIX repriced to ~18.20 from 17.19 record-low · IRAN PUBLICLY FRAMES COUNTER AS “REASONABLE AND GENEROUS” AND REAFFIRMS “WE WILL NEVER BOW”; counter explicitly demands “Iranian management of the Strait of Hormuz if certain commitments are undertaken by the US” + war-damages compensation + sanctions lift + guarantees against future attacks (CNBC / CNN / Al Jazeera May 11) · AL KHARAITIYAT SUNDAY LNG TRANSIT NOW A ONE-OFF as Tehran’s tanker-suspension threat caps mediator-state expansion (Bloomberg / The Week / CGTN / The National / Times of Israel / ZeroHedge / J-Post May 10-11) · TRUMP REJECTS IRAN MOU RESPONSE AS “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE” on Truth Social Sunday (CNN / Washington Post / Bloomberg / NBC / CBS / Al Jazeera / Fox / ABC May 10) · IRAN FORMALLY DELIVERS MOU RESPONSE VIA PAKISTANI MEDIATOR SUNDAY per IRNA (IRNA / Xinhua / Al Jazeera / Euronews / Al-Monitor May 10) · SAUDI ARAMCO CEO AMIN NASSER: “NO QUICK FIX” ON HORMUZ; could take “a month or two” even with a deal (Bloomberg May 10) · KHAMENEI DIRECTLY REJECTS TRUMP PEACE PROPOSAL — “excessive and outrageous” / “unworthy of a response” / supports “death to America” chants (Iran International / Wikipedia / Al Jazeera May 10) · SHAMKHANI: “olive branch / barbed wire” · KUWAITI ARMY INTERCEPTS HOSTILE DRONES IN KUWAITI AIRSPACE AT DAWN SUNDAY (Brig Gen Saud Al-Otaibi; ABC News / Kuwait MOD May 10) · QATAR BULK CARRIER STRUCK BY UNKNOWN PROJECTILE 23NM NE DOHA — small fire extinguished, no casualties (UKMTO / Royal Navy / AP / Times of Israel May 10) · IRGC NAVY BRIG GEN AKRAMINIA: COUNTRIES ENFORCING US SANCTIONS “WILL CERTAINLY FACE PROBLEMS” THROUGH HORMUZ (CNN live May 10) · WITKOFF + RUBIO MET QATAR PM IN MIAMI EARLIER SUNDAY adding third-party security-guarantee track · IRGC NAVAL COMMAND VERBAL THREAT — “heavy assault against one of the American centers in the region” (CNN live / NBC News May 9) · IRGC AEROSPACE FORCE: “missiles and drones are locked onto the enemy — we are awaiting the order to fire” · Washington Israel-Lebanon Round-3 May 14-15 · JPost: Trump to launch “Project Freedom Plus” if Iran talks fail · Day 71 RAINBOW SITE satellite imagery (NCRI/Fox/JPost/Iran International/Israel Hayom/19FortyFive May 8-9) — alleged secret Iranian nuclear-weapons facility in Semnan extracting tritium under “Diba Energy Siba” chemical-firm cover · Araghchi dismisses imagery as “political distraction” · Rubio permanent-dismantle redline hardening risk · IRAN 10-POINT COUNTER-PROPOSAL via Pakistan REJECTING US temporary ceasefire intact · CENTCOM ~70 commercial vessels turned around by May 8 · Tehran closes strait to ALL foreign-flagged ships until US lifts blockade · Iranian Navy seizes sanctioned tanker “Ocean Koi” in Gulf of Oman May 8 · Major Kharg Island oil spill ~45-71 sq km / ~80K bbl since May 5 via Copernicus Sentinel · Day 70 US strikes on 2 Iranian oil tankers in Hormuz — 1 Iranian sailor killed + 10 injured per Iran judiciary · Day 70 Iran missile/drone barrage on UAE (3 wounded) · Day 69 US–Iran kinetic exchange — US struck Bandar Abbas + Qeshm · Trump “love tap” + “much higher level and intensity” bombing stick · Three-stage framework: end war / Hormuz / 30-day window · 12–15Y nuclear moratorium landing zone · Hormuz-first sequencing · Project Freedom paused · Pakistan-mediated channel · China + Macron public Hormuz-reopening demands · Trump-Xi summit May 14-15 · Blockade of Iranian ports D32 with active enforcement · PGSA operational · UKMTO 43+ vessel incidents since Feb 28 · ~1,500–1,600 vessels stuck · weekly transits ~40 vs ~120/day pre-war · early-July Lebanon extension expiry.

ROME ROUND 5 OUTCOME — Fifth round of US-Iran talks in Rome (May 23) ended without breakthrough; both sides agreed to continue. Watch: whether Pakistan mediation produces a revised framework before May 29 Pentagon security track; whether nuclear dismantlement language gap can be bridged; whether ceasefire holds through the cliff · ARAGHCHI ENRICHMENT DEADLOCK RESOLUTION — Iran FM has explicitly declared enriched uranium talks “in deadlock”; both sides agree to postpone the issue to later negotiations stage; Russia’s offer to store Iran’s enriched stockpile is now on the table; whether this Russia offer advances (potentially unlocking negotiations) or stalls; whether enrichment deadlock drives Iran to formally exit the current MOU framework; Araghchi’s “doubts about US seriousness” comment raises public hardening risk (Al Jazeera / WION May 15) · FUJAIRAH HUI CHUAN SEIZURE CONTEXT — whether the Hui Chuan “floating armoury” seizure is a standalone tactical act or signals Iran escalating maritime seizure operations beyond commercial/cargo vessels to dual-use/security vessels; whether UAE files formal protest and bilateral Iran-UAE tension elevates · MAY 29 PENTAGON SECURITY TRACK — first session of the dual-track process under the 45-day Lebanon-Israel extension (confirmed May 15); security-focused talks at the Pentagon; whether the security track produces operational agreements or remains procedural · JUN 2–3 STATE DEPT POLITICAL TALKS — political track of the dual-track process at State Department; whether talks produce a preliminary framework or remain procedural; first major political checkpoint under the 45-day extension · INDIA DIPLOMATIC RESPONSE TO MSV HAJ ALI SINKING — India condemned the attack; whether India escalates bilaterally with Iran or calls for UNSC action; first major non-GCC nation to publicly condemn a vessel sinking in this cycle · WHETHER VESSEL-SINKING PATTERN REPEATS — MSV Haj Ali sinking is first physical vessel destruction in this conflict cycle; whether Iran broadens from seizure to active sinking against non-approved flags · UK HORMUZ MISSION POSTURE — whether HMS Dragon / multinational coalition operates as escort-only or crosses Iran’s “immediate and decisive response” tripwire; whether Iran conducts any kinetic action against coalition assets · EARLY-JULY LEBANON EXTENSION EXPIRY — Lebanon-Israel 45-day extension confirmed through ~early July; whether the dual-track process (May 29 Pentagon / Jun 2–3 State Dept) produces a permanent framework before the next expiry cliff · UNSC VOTE ON US-BAHRAIN 112-NATION HORMUZ RESOLUTION — whether vote is called before or after Lebanon cliff; 112 co-sponsors building diplomatic pressure on Iran · COMBAT-RESTART WINDOW POST-SUMMIT — Trump aides say Trump is “more seriously thinking of restarting combat operations”; decision deferred post-summit; now front-burner post-Beijing (CNN / Gulf News May 12) · IRAN ROUND-5 TALKS TIMELINE — Oman to coordinate Round-5 after Round-4 concluded “difficult but useful”; whether Round-5 is scheduled before or after Lebanon extension announcement · WHETHER XI PLEDGE TRANSLATES INTO CONCRETE CHINESE PRESSURE ON IRAN — Xi pledged not to arm Iran and to help reopen Hormuz; whether China applies direct leverage on Tehran via diplomatic back-channels · ROUND-5 SCHEDULING AND SUBSTANCE — Oman to coordinate the next round of US-Iran talks after Round-4 concluded “difficult but useful” with no breakthrough Monday (PBS / Times of Israel / FDD / Al Jazeera May 11); whether the diplomatic clock holds into the Trump-Xi Beijing summit May 14-15 · IRAN FORMAL DEAL-WITHDRAWAL DECISION — whether Tehran formally pulls out of the US deal over Israel’s Lebanon actions after Monday’s 182-killed escalation (Iranian state media / CBS News May 11) · WHETHER TEHRAN OPERATIONALIZES THE THREATENED HORMUZ TANKER-TRAFFIC SUSPENSION beyond the rhetorical signal · WHETHER LEBANON BEIRUT-SUBURBS PATTERN MULTIPLIES TOWARD GROUND OPERATIONS after Lebanon health ministry reports 182 killed + 890 wounded Monday and UN Sec-Gen “grave risk” warning · BRENT $106.80 PERSISTENCE — whether the +4.9% intraday move holds into the NY close or extends through $110-115 / whether SPX -0.6% intraday and VIX 18.20 reprice further as the deal-track is publicly entrenched · TRUMP’S NEXT TRUTH SOCIAL POST — whether the President hardens further (CENTCOM Phase-2 menu / “much higher level” bombing stick / “Project Freedom Plus” trigger) or pivots toward a counter-offer · IRAN HEU “FULL READINESS” POSTURE — whether Tehran reinforces with visible site-defense moves at Fordow / Natanz / Isfahan · Khamenei vs Iran-government track divergence — whether the divergence widens or the government track is publicly disavowed · Whether the Persian Gulf vessel-strike pattern multiplies after Sun May 10 Qatar bulk-carrier strike (UKMTO 23nm NE Doha) · Iran broadened retaliatory framing on countries enforcing US sanctions — whether GCC and European-flag vessels (Maersk, CMA CGM, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd) are warned off or struck · Whether IRGC verbal “heavy assault” threat translates into kinetic action against US bases or US Navy assets · Whether Lebanon Beirut-suburbs strike pattern multiplies after Saturday’s 3 vehicle drone strikes south of Beirut + IDF 85-target/24h tempo · Whether Hezbollah border-area drone strikes inside Israel multiply · Washington Israel-Lebanon Round-3 May 14-15 outcome · “Project Freedom Plus” trigger conditions (JPost May 9) and whether Trump publicly references the framework into the Trump-Xi Beijing window · Washington’s response to the Rainbow Site allegation — whether Rubio publicly hardens the permanent-dismantle redline · 12–15Y moratorium-vs-“non-negotiable” enrichment tie-break · Whether Iran-side reciprocal seizures multiply (Ocean Koi precedent operational in Gulf of Oman) · CENTCOM 70-vessel turnback floor and whether vessel-turnback tempo accelerates · Kharg Island oil spill containment + cause attribution · Trump-Xi Beijing summit May 14-15 · MOU signature · 30-day detailed-negotiation clock · Hormuz-first sequencing (Aramco 1-2 month reopening lag now floored) · Frozen-asset release · Sanctions-lift timeline · PGSA permit-compliance tempo · CENTCOM Phase-2 standdown · GCC response · early-July Lebanon extension expiry · Hezbollah-IDF exchange tempo.