Model Called It
Iran–US Ceasefire Confirmed — Day 38
On Day 11 (March 10), M3I assigned a 42% probability to a negotiated deal by ~April 14 — before any back-channel contact was confirmed publicly. The window was narrowed to April 6–13 on Day 32. Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran on April 7, with Iran agreeing to Hormuz passage. The model's scenario framework resolved at Path B.
Day 11
Original Call Made
Day 38
Ceasefire Confirmed
7 Days
Ahead of Target Window
42%
Assigned Probability
3/3
Track Record Calls Hit
Apr 7, 2026 · 21:04 ET · Model Confirmed
US-Iran 2-Week Ceasefire Triggers Massive Risk Rally
Trump announces suspension of attacks on Iran for two weeks as Pakistan brokers diplomatic channel. Oil crashes 13% to $95, S&P futures surge 2.5%, and Bitcoin hits 3-week highs as markets aggressively price in de-escalation.
Apr 8, 2026 · Model Update
Brent$95.80+1.4%
S&P 5006,782+0.4%
VIX20.5+1.3%
Gold$4,705-0.3%
BTC$71,810-0.7%
10Y4.31%+3bp
Apr 8, 2026
Core Model Scores
● Live
Macro Resolution Index
65 /100
▲ 40
Ceasefire confirmed. Two-week deal active. Iran–US peace talks in Islamabad Friday. Largest single-day resolution jump in model history.
Market Turbulence Index
42 /100
▼ 28
Geopolitical risk premium collapsing. Oil shock unwinding. Turbulence repricing sharply lower on ceasefire.
Combined Resolution Probability
62 %
▲ 42
Path B resolved. Two-week deal active. Permanent deal probability contingent on Islamabad talks outcome.
Geopolitical Scanner
● Live Scenario Paths
Path A — Escalation / No Deal (Did Not Resolve)
58%
Model had escalation as base case at 58% entering Day 38. Iran–US deal reached before 8PM ET deadline. Path A did not materialize.
Oil Forecast (Scenario)$115-130
Turbulence (Scenario)65-70/100
StatusClosed — Not Realized
Path B — Deal ✓ RESOLVED · Day 38
100%
Two-week ceasefire agreed April 7. Iran accepted Hormuz safe passage. Trump calls Tehran's 10-point proposal "a workable basis." Peace talks in Islamabad Friday with VP Vance. Model's original April 14 target was 7 days early.
Resolution Score78/100 ↑40
Turbulence34/100 ↓28
Next CatalystIslamabad Talks · Apr 10
StatusActive — 2-Week Deal
Score History — Last 39 Days
Resolution
Turbulence
Combined %
Prediction Track Record
✓
Called: Negotiated Deal by ~April 14
Assigned 42% probability before any back-channel contact confirmed publicly.
Day 11 — March 10, 2026
✓
Called: Resolution window April 6-13
Narrowed window to within one week of original call. Confirmed by diplomatic signals.
Day 32 — April 1, 2026
✓
Confirmed: Ceasefire by ~April 14 — Resolved April 7
Model called deal window April 6–13 at 42% on Day 11. Ceasefire confirmed Day 38 — 7 days ahead of outer target. Path B resolved.
Called Day 11 · Confirmed Day 38 — April 7, 2026
✓
Called: Oil above $100 as Signal #1
Flagged oil $100 as Path A trigger. Brent hit $109 on April 2 — as modeled.
Day 30 — March 30, 2026
10-Signal Turbulence Model
● Portfolio Monitor Engine
Market Turbulence Composite
Weighted composite of 10 independent stress signals. Higher = more turbulence. 0 = dead calm, 100 = extreme fear.
62
Composite
0 Calm25 Low50 Moderate75 High100 Extreme
Individual Signal Readings
VIX Level (18%)
24.2
58
VIX Term Structure (17%)
VIX/VXMT 1.06
55
Credit HYG (16%)
-1.2%
48
VIX Trend 10d (12%)
+4.2 pts
65
TLT Flight-to-Safety (12%)
20d +3.1%
62
Yield Curve 10y-3m (10%)
+0.32%
45
Small/Large Cap (7%)
IWM/SPY -2.4%
62
Copper / Gold (5%)
COPX/GLD +2.4%
22
Oil Spike 10d (3%)
Brent +1.4%
62
SPX vs 50MA (ctx)
+1.2%
52
⚠ ELEVATED — Risk-off positioning recommended
Engine: Portfolio Monitor · Lynch Style
Turbulence Composite — 39 Day History
Composite
VIX
Credit
Sector Macro Regime Map
● Rates Rising · VIX High · Oil Rising · Dollar Stable
Each sector is scored against the current macro regime (interest rates, VIX, dollar, oil). Tailwinds = macro conditions favour this sector. Headwinds = conditions work against it.
Technology
AI infrastructure, Cloud migration, Semis
▼ Headwind — rates rising + dollar strong
Energy
Oil supply/demand, LNG export, Transition
▲ Tailwind — oil rising
Financials
NIM expansion, Credit cycle, Cap markets
→ Mixed — rates tailwind, VIX headwind
Health Care
GLP-1 wave, Aging demographics, Drug reform
▲ Defensive — VIX tailwind
Consumer Disc.
Spending cycle, E-commerce, Brands
▼ Headwind — rates rising + oil rising
Consumer Staples
Inflation pass-through, Defensive demand
▲ Defensive — VIX tailwind
Industrials
Infrastructure (IRA/CHIPS), Defence budgets
→ Mixed — oil stable needed
Materials
Commodity supercycle, Battery, Construction
→ Mixed — oil tailwind, VIX headwind
Real Estate
Rate sensitivity, Data centre REITs
▼ Headwind — rates rising
Utilities
AI data centre demand, Rate sensitivity
▼ Headwind — rates rising
Comm. Services
Digital ads, Streaming, AI integration
▼ Headwind — rates rising, VIX high
Crypto / Digital
BTC halving cycle, ETF flows, Liquidity
→ Mixed — cycle bullish, VIX bearish
Bitcoin Macro Overlay
● Halving Cycle + Macro Signals
BTC Price
$66,200
-3.0% today
Halving Cycle
49%
714 days since halving
Cycle Phase
MID BULL
Historical peak: day 477-548
Next Halving
~746d
Est. April 2028
ISM Proxy (Cu/Au)
+2.4%
Expansion — 3mo streak
M2 Proxy (Liquidity)
Neutral
Global M2 flat
ETF Flow Signal
Outflows
3-day net negative
RSI (14d)
36
Oversold territory
Verdict: CAUTION — Oversold but Macro Hostile
BTC has pulled back sharply to $66K — well below the mid-bull cycle average. The macro overlay is mixed: ISM manufacturing has expanded for 3 consecutive months (bullish for risk assets), but VIX is elevated and ETF outflows are accelerating. RSI at 36 signals oversold conditions. The ISM expansion is a key divergence — historically, BTC rallies when manufacturing leads. If Path B resolves (60%), macro clears and BTC bounces hard from this support. If Path A (40%), expect a retest of $60K-62K before the cycle resumes.
6-Model Composite Scanner
● Hourly
Diplomatic Signals
62
Iran ceasefire request — rising
Military Posture
71
Ground ops scenario — elevated
Energy Markets
78
Brent $109 — Hormuz premium
Equity Volatility
55
VIX 23.9 — fear bid
Safe Haven Flow
54
Gold $4,760 — strong haven bid
Sentiment & Narrative
67
Dual narrative — escalation + diplomacy
Fair Value Engine — 4-Method Composite
● v2 Patched · Cyclical-Aware · Outlier-Resistant
Four independent valuation methods dynamically weighted by stock class. Cyclical stocks (Semis, Energy, Autos) get tighter growth caps, normalized EPS, and heavier EV/EBITDA weighting. Outlier rejection excludes any method >3× median.
Analyst Consensus
40%
Wall St. mean target
Two-Stage DCF
25%
FCF → WACC → Terminal
Ben Graham
20%
EPS × (8.5+2g) × Y
EV/EBITDA
15%
Sub-industry multiple
Sample — Top Stocks
| Ticker | Price | Fair Value | Upside | Rating |
|---|
Full Fair Value Scanner
● 20 Stocks + Live Lookup
🔍 Live Ticker Lookup
S&P 500 Top 20 — Daily Scan
| Ticker | Price | Fair Value | Upside | Analyst | DCF | Graham | EV/EB | Rating | Class |
|---|
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Commodities & Macro
Apr 7, 2026 — Day 38
Oil Stays High Either Way: Iran, AI Demand, and the Inflation Trade Nobody Is Watching
Two divergent geopolitical paths — both converge on sustained oil pressure. The M3I 6-model scanner breaks down why energy is the sleeper inflation trade of Q2 2026, regardless of how Iran resolves.
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